~Space Weather Update~ Chance of X Class Solar Flare Earth Directed~ [1]
CHANCE OF FLARES, EARTH-DIRECTED: NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 20% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. Any eruptions are likely to be geoeffective because the source, sunspot AR1476, is directly facing our planet. X-flare alerts: text [2], phone [3].
Yesterday, May 10th, amateur astronomer David Maidment of Sohar, Oman caught the active region in mid-flare during a strong M5-class [4] eruption:
[5]
The blast, which almost crossed the threshold into X-territory [6], did not produce a significant coronal mass ejection (CME). "There seemed to be no CME due to the fact that the plasma was captured and dragged back down to the sun," notes Maidment.
more images: from Sylvain Chapeland [7] of Pays de Gex, France; from David Cortner [8] of Rutherford College, NC; from Jett Aguilar [9] of Quezon City, Philippines; from Rogerio Marcon [10] of Campinas SP Brasil; from Paul Maxson [11] of Surprise, Arizona; from Rusty Venture of Naperville, Illinois; from Richard Wagner [12] of Lincolnshire, Illinois; from Larry Alvarez [13] of Flower Mound, Texas
Solar wind
speed: 575.6 km/sec
density: 0.0 protons/cm3
explanation [14] | more data [15]
Updated: Today at 1625 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 1310 UT May11
24-hr: C4 1310 UT May11
explanation [16] | more data [17]
Updated: Today at: 1600 UT
Daily Sun: 11 May 12
[18]
Sunspot 1476 poses a continued threat for X-class [4] solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
Sunspot number: 93
What is the sunspot number? [19]
Updated 10 May 2012
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 821 days
Typical Solar Min: 486 days
Updated 10 May 2012
The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 131 sfu
explanation [20] | more data [21]
Updated 10 May 2012
Current Auroral Oval:
[22]
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/POES
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
explanation [23] | more data [24]
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.0 nT
Bz: 0.8 nT south
explanation [25] | more data [26]
Updated: Today at 1626 UT
Coronal Holes: 11 May 12
[27]
Earth is inside a solar wind stream flowing from this coronal hole. Credit: SDO/AIA.