Markets Look Poised for Bumpy Summer

Rain's picture


Jamie Robertson
By Jamie Robertson Presenter, BBC World News

So, is this summer going to be as bad as last year's for the stock markets?

That would be unfortunate to say the least because if, say the UK market reproduces its behaviour of last July and August, by the time we come back from the beach in September the FTSE will have lost about 1,000 points.

There are reasons to think things could get steadily worse.

Jobs are being created at a snail-like pace in the US, and in China the decision to cut interest rates suggests the economy there could be in a worse state than had been feared.

Meanwhile on Friday, German bonds and US Treasuries rose sharply and the euro tumbled to the lowest level against the dollar since the beginning of June.

The oil price fell 3.2% in New York - and this was at the end of a week when Iran had been testing missiles and threatening tanker supplies in the Persian Gulf, which should normally have jerked prices upwards.

Even gold, which should offer protection in the direst of circumstances, remains 20% below its peaks of last year.
 

Trader in London
Market traders have much economic data to digest - much of it not currently positive.


Spanish Concerns

The decision by the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to record lows received the worst sort of reception - indifference.

The markets simply shrugged their shoulders and moved lower - rates are so close to rock bottom it makes little difference to anyone. Banks barely lend to each other, let alone to companies or consumers, so a quarter of one percentage point will not change much.

We could have reached the point where markets see most actions by governments to help their economies as merely confirmation of the severity of the crisis.

But as has been the case so often during the past three months, all eyes are turning back to Spain, where yields of 10-year bonds are tip-toeing back above 7% - the point at which financing becomes unsustainable over any reasonable length of time.

A huge amount of Spain's problems lie in its banks.

To read the rest of this story, visit http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18759482