~ Space Weather Update~ Active Sunspot 5% Chance of X Class~ Stay Tuned!

Lia's picture

SOLAR VARIABILITY AND TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE: A new report issued by the National Research Council, "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet. Get the full story from Science@NASA.

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Big sunspot AR1654 is crackling with C- and M-class solar flares, and it poses a threat for even stronger eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of X-flares today. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

Flares are illuminating the sunspot's magnetic canopy like flash bulbs at a rock concert; the phenomenon is evident in this 37-hour extreme ultraviolet movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

Since it first appeared four days ago, sunspot AR1654 has been facing away from Earth. But now it is turning toward us, increasing the "geo-effectiveness" of its explosions. This could be the sunspot that breaks the recent lengthy spell of calm space weather around our planet.

Amateur astronomers with backyard solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor in the days ahead. It is not only crackling, but also growing. As of Jan 12th, the behemoth stretches more than 180,000 km (14 Earth diameters) from end to end. Dennis Simmons sends this picture of the behemoth from Brisbane, Australia:

"Although the air was milky from nearby bush fires burning north of Brisbane, the seeing turned out to be good enough for a high-resolution shot," says Simmons. "I dedicate this image to the brave Australian fire fighters, working in horrendous, hot and windy conditions whilst fighting fires burning out of control across the south-east states of our country. I salute your selfless courage."

 


Solar wind
speed: 384.8 km/sec
density: 5.1 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2027 UT


X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3
1933 UT Jan12
24-hr: C5 0224 UT Jan12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2000 UT



Daily Sun: 12 Jan 13



Sunspots AR1652 and AR1654 have beta-gamma magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI



Sunspot number: 166
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 12 Jan 2013

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 821 days
Typical Solar Min: 486 days

Update 12 Jan 2013

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 169 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 12 Jan 2013



Current Auroral Oval:


Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/POES



Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data


Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.1 nT
Bz: 3.1 nT north

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2027 UT



Coronal Holes: 12 Jan 13



There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA.

Category: