~ Space Weather Update~ M and C Class Flares, Exploding Comet

CHANCE OF FLARES: Fast-growing sunspot AR1875 (movie) has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of M-class solar flares and a 5% chance of X-flares on Oct. 22nd. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

COMET EXPLOSION: Almost 450 million km from Earth, Comet C/2012 X1 (LINEAR) has exploded. Amateur astronomers are reporting a 150-fold increase in the comet's brightness on Oct. 20th, and the comet's atmosphere or "coma" now resembles that of exploding Comet 17P/Holmes in 2007. Using a remotely-controlled 0.5 meter telescope in New Mexico, European observers Ernesto Guido, Martino Nicolini and Nick Howes took this picture of the spherical explosion on Oct 21st:

"The predicted magnitude of the comet, pre-outburst, was about +14," says Guido. "Now it is close to +8.5." This is below the threshold for naked-eye visibility, but bright enough for backyard telescopes equipped with digital cameras.

Prompted by the reports of Guido et al, Romanian amateur astronomer Maximilian Teodorescu observed the comet on Oct. 22nd, confirming its brightness and spherical structure: image. "It looked exactly like Comet Holmes back in 2007," says Teodorescu.

Located in the constellation Coma Berenices, Comet LINEAR X1 rises in the east about an hour before the sun. The low altitude of the comet in morning twilight is a challenge. "I could not see the comet through the eyepiece of my 4.5 inch refracting telescope," adds Teodorescu, "but the camera detected it easily enough." The comet could become brighter in the days ahead as its coma expands. Monitoring is encouraged. Resources: 3D orbit, ephemeris, sky map.

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery

ORIONID METEOR SHOWER--UPDATE: The Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) is still detecting echoes from Orionid meteors. This means Earth is still inside a stream of debris from the shower's parent comet, Halley. A CMOR sky map made at 13:45 UT on Oct. 22nd shows the Orionid radiant (ORI) clearly active:

Forecasters expected the shower to peak on Oct. 21st with about 20 meteors per hour. However, Halley's debris stream is so broad that Orionid activity has spilled into Oct. 22nd. If you're up before sunrise, be alert for meteors! [meteor radar] [sky map]

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

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Realtime Comet ISON Photo Gallery

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Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

 

All Sky Fireball Network

NEW: Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Oct. 22, 2013, the network reported 38 fireballs.
(22 sporadics, 12 Orionids, 4 southern Taurids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/POES

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
explanation | more data

Interplanetary Mag. Field
B_total: 8.0 nT
B_z: 3.5 nT north
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1506 UT

Coronal Holes: 22 Oct 13

There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA