wunderground-July 26,2013
Tropical Storm Dorian is fighting to maintain itself as a tropical cyclone. Dorian, the fourth named Atlantic storm of the season, formed over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early Wednesday morning.
Dorian will continue tracking west or west-northwest over the next several days on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores high, and will remain over open waters through the weekend.
Dorian will approach the longitude of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday night into Monday, and then the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday night into Tuesday. While it appears more likely Dorian's center will track north of those locations, some fringe effects are possible in these areas, such as bands of locally heavy rainfall and areas of high surf/rip currents.
That all said, two factors are working to weaken Dorian.
First, Dorian is fighting dry, stable air both immediately ahead of and blasting behind the storm, according to an analysis by UW-CIMSS and NOAA/HRD.
Then, west to southwest wind shear will continue to displace any convection that can persist away from the low-level center of Dorian, particularly as it passes north of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands early next week.
It is possible these two hostile factors may weaken Dorian such that it degenerates to a tropical wave (i.e., not a closed circulation center, after which the National Hurricane Center would issue a "final advisory") anytime in the coming days.
Interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Hispanola, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba should still monitor the progress of this system.
Given the expected weakening, the U.S. threat appears to be virtually zero from Dorian at this time.
http://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-depression-four-atlantic-20130723
