I propose that, admitting extraterrestrial presence would have as goal a physical survey of the Earth, there might be no encounter at all, as encounter is probably not required for a physical survey. The reason can then be formulated as "admitting an extraterrestrial presence on Earth, the goal is not necessarily a physical survey," and I do not think there are any reason yet to come to the idea that we could possibly conceive the goals and the methods to reach these goals that any extraterrestrial presence might have.
I have no underlying facts or figures indicating that close encounters are far more numerous than required for a physical survey of the Earth, as I have no underlying facts or figures of any sort of reliability to estimate the number of close encounters. I do not even see data to evaluate the number of admitted "true" close encounters against the number or "alleged" close encounters. I propose than before speculating on such numbers, they must be evaluated correctly. As for now, depending on the source, there is a general belief that most if not all close encounters are not due to any extraterrestrial presence, and thus my opinion is that there are very few true cases of close encounters where the best or only possible explanation is that of an encounter with a non terrestrial intelligence.
I do not favor the idea that determining what explanation suits best for UFO experiences could be devised by mind games and logical speculation; I favor that it can be sorted out only through best possible case by case investigation.
However, if I were to use logical speculation, I would ask for example: what are the chances we have of correctly assessing the means to perform the physical survey of a planet? To cite a very real situation, I would propose to assess how much probes and probably manned expeditions we will send to Mars, and for how log, before we will consider that we have acquired all the knowledge we desire about this planet, not forgetting that the general idea is that there is not so much to investigate on Mars than of Earth, from a visitor's point of view, and not forgetting that some propose that, admitted we have extra-terrestrial visits, they might be of more than a unique origin.
Also, if we admit the extra-terrestrial hypothesis in this discussion, then we admit that there are at least two intelligent civilisation in our vicinity of galaxy or in the universe: us and them. But, there is no sense in this: if there such thing as extra-terrestrial intelligence with a space travel technology, then there are probably not two, but a large number of these civilizations, and if we admit that there is some interest for them to survey our planet, then we are probably not surveyed by one unique extra-terrestrial civilization, but by many, in fact we may be under a constant flow of visits from various such civilization. An argument opposed to vallée is the well known Fermi paradox, where, actually, a reason (that can be opposed of course) to dismiss an extra-terrestrial origin of the observed UFOs is that there are not enough of them.
In few word, the whole argument is surprisingly poor when I come to think at it: unexplained close encounters are not really counted, we do not know what would be required for a survey of the Earth, we do not know how many extra-terrestrial civilization would be surveying the Earth, we have no evidence but can only speculate that there is a survey of the Earth.
In any case, I disregard the idea behind the argument here. UFO research is not about understanding the goals behind the intelligence that we may admit as the cause of the UFO sighting reports. Trying to interpret this intelligence puts us in a similar position as of prmitive pygmies trying to understand the goals and motivation of anthropologists in best best case, and probably more in the position of ants trying to figure out the rhyme and reason of the giant phenomenon that hit the ant farm - a human foot. At this point of UFO Research, (close to ground zero), all we can do is to gather the data and measurements and evidence hoping that our follower may be able to put some sense into it.
I hope this finds you well, and have a good day.
Tom Clarke
