Wunderground.com- 9/10/13, Dr. Jeff Masters
September 10 marks the traditional halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the first half of the hurricane season of 2013 is making its mark in the history books as one of the least active such periods on record. Going back to before when the Hurricane Hunters first began flying in 1944, there has been only one hurricane season that made it past the half-way point without a hurricane forming: the El Niño year of 2002, when Hurricane Gustav formed at 8 am EDT on September 11. Tropical Storm Humberto is looking poised to become a hurricane later today, and 2013 will likely end up ranking in 2nd place for latest formation of the season's first hurricane, going back to 1941. Here are the Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1941 in which the first hurricane did not form until after September 7:
2002: September 11, Hurricane Gustav
2013: September 10+ (Nothing yet)
1984: September 10, Hurricane Diana
2001: September 8, Hurricane Erin
Be prepared for a destructive hurricane in 2013
Residents of Hurricane Alley shouldn't assume the rest of the season will end with a whimper, though. All it takes is one bad hurricane to ruin an otherwise quiet hurricane season. Recall that last year's worst storm--Hurricane Sandy--didn't occur until the third week of October. Another thing to consider: the season with the greatest similarity to what we've seen during the first half of the 2013 season was 1988. That year, we also had unusual quietness before September 10, no El Niño, and above average ocean temperatures in the MDR. But the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded up to that time ripped through the Caribbean, Hurricane Gilbert, as well as two other major hurricanes. I flew into Hurricane Gilbert at the height of its fury 25 years ago, and plan to recount the story of that amazing flight this Friday.
